Since the 1st night of the MLB draft was held last night and we got to see where some of the names we’ve been following for a while have landed, I thought it would be fun to put up my first mock draft of next year’s CPL draft. I know JK just did one, but I thought I’d throw my propaganda…..er…I mean, my two cents out there as well. Like JK, I’ve also included my reasoning for each pick.
1- BROB’s Barnacles: Tyler Kolek- RHP- Mia
I think BROB goes with pure upside, and being that Kolek is the hardest throwing and maybe the overall best high school righty in the history of the draft, I think it’s safe to say his upside trumps everyone elses.
2- Mauling Tigers: Carlos Rodon- LHP- ChW
Yeah yeah, Tiger says he doesn’t draft pitching in the 1st round (as Kohl Stewart scratches his head at that one), but I’m not sure Tiger has ever picked so high in a draft so loaded with pitchers. And he’ll be ecstatic to land Rodon- the consensus preseason #1 pick- a college lefty (i.e. quick to majors with a wide margin of error) who’s coming off a “bad season” where he had a 2.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.67 k/9 and 2.83 BB/9.
3- Kelly’s Heroes: Brady Aiken- LHP- Hou
JK’s first pick of many and he takes the biggest helium guy of the season. Aiken wasn’t an unknown coming into the season (BA ranked him as the #4 high schooler back in January) but he became the consensus #1 overall for most (all?) prognosticators. I saw Aiken pitch at the Perfect Game Showcase and I did not think he was bad by any means- he had low a low 90s fastball to go with a curve that was devastating to righties, but he slowed his arm way down on his change. He obviously must’ve corrected that and everyone thinks he’s going to be great, especially KLaw, and KLaw’s word is law. JK will take Aiken and be giddy that he gets him at 3.
4- Kelly’s Heroes (GI Zo’s): Alex Jackson- OF- Sea
JK’s second pick and he has now landed (maybe) the best arm and (maybe) the best bat in the draft. To get this pick JK traded Joey Votto and it may work out in the long run for him. Reports said that Jackson had the best bat in the whole class- HS or College- and it looks like his days of catching are over. Is he as sexy as just an outfielder- yeah, I think so. Another guy I saw at the PG showcase and in the little that I saw he looked the part and had a great swing. However, going to Seattle might hurt his power production.
5- Kelly’s Heroes (Ball Busters): Jeff Hoffman- RHP- Tor
With ¾ of the 1st round picks in his possession, JK will not think twice about gambling on players and his first gamble will come here with Hoffman. Hoffman, a pretty consensus top 3 pick up until a couple months ago has been sidelined with TJ surgery, meaning that JK will not see any return on this investment until 2016 at the earliest, and probably not at the major league level until 2017…unless JK trades him, which is very likely (Vegas odds on that are currently 2:1). If he doesn’t trade him JK will have a really strong addition to his MLB rotation- although probably not a true ace. Considering this pick cost JK Tanner Scheppers and Nick Markakis, and in return JK also got Casey Kelly and a 3rd round pick, I’d say this transaction is a big win for JK.
6- Kelly’s Heroes (The Big Hurts): Nick Gordon- SS- Min
In a big transaction, JK traded Shelby Miller and Josh Donaldson to The Big Hurts for a slew of picks, including this one, where JK takes his second bat of the draft. Another guy that I saw at the PG showcase, I thought there was something special about Gordon. His speed and quickness was elite- a class above everyone else there (especially his quickness). Defensively he was crisp, and with the bat he made up for his lack of hulking power with great bat speed and incredible knack of putting the bat on the ball. Considering he has not yet been a full-time position player (also was considered a pitching prospect) I think we haven’t even seen what he’s capable of. Not only a great pick for the Twins, but also for JK as I think he’ll have a guy who has the potential to hit .300 and steal 40 bags with a little bit of power.
7- Kelly’s Heroes (Holy Moly): Touki Toussaint- SP- Ari
Toussaint was a top HS prospect when I saw him pitch at the PG showcase last year and I thought he was exceptional. I only saw him pitch one inning, but he hit mid 90s and had a power curve and in my notes I put (in all caps) STUD. I still think that. I’m not a huge proponent of the “good athlete” tag on baseball players, but in the case of a starting pitcher I think it has some value. Because of his athletic ability, I think Toussaint will be able to move quickly for a HS pitcher because he’ll be able to master his mechanics, repeatability, etc. Probably not a true ace either, but JK will not be disappointed with this guy. When you consider that JK gave up Elvis Andrus for (what will be) Toussaint, Crick, and Robert Stephenson, this could really pan out well for JK.
8- Baby Seals:- Kyle Schwarber- C- ChC
Yeah, I know what you’re thinking, everyone thought this pick was a reach (including those of us who live podcasted the draft) and it may have been. I’ll be honest and say that I didn’t know anything about Schwarber before last night. BUT, here’s the rationale for this pick here. First, it’s no secret that Fred is, let’s say, nonconventional when it comes to drafting. He is not afraid to take a college guy who went higher than expected or who may not have the same CPL value as he does MLB value (see: Colin Moran). Second, I said it last night, but Theo Epstein is no dummy and he knows what he’s doing. If Theo thinks Schwarber is worth the #4 overall pick (even if it is a money saving move), then I’ll take that into consideration. Third, Schwarber is a Big 10 guy, and Big 10 players do not get a lot of love. I’m not saying that everyone not in a big-market is the next Mike Trout, but maybe if Schwarber was playing for LSU or Texas this pick would not have been as surprising. Finally, Schwarber is no slouch with the bat and is a power hitting catcher. Even if he moves to 1B, there’s still value here. I think Fred takes this pick, everyone groans (or chuckles), but later on we see that Theo was right (and so was Fred), and Schwarber becomes a very good fantasy backstop.
9- Kelly’s Heroes (Scared Hitless): Casey Gillaspie- 1B- TB
Gillaspie may be the first Shocker product to hit for excellent power since Joe Carter. The best switch hitter to come along in a while, Gillaspie has been compared to Mark Teixeria and that is pretty exciting. As a college guy the hope is that he can be moved along quickly, but that hope should die when everyone remembers that he was drafted by Tampa Bay and they move guys along like a snail through molasses. But the power is nice, so are the batting and on base skills, and Gillaspie might prove to be a real steal at 9. Or, he may fall into the long line of Wichita State guys who never produce elite-caliber numbers at the major league level. Don’t forget his older brother Conor was also a 1st round pick, and Conor’s Junior season numbers at WSU aren’t all that different from Casey’s Junior season numbers. JK moved Matt Moore to get this pick as well as Josh Donaldson, so even if Gillaspie flops this will still turn out to be a good transaction for JK.
10- Tom Cats: Jacob Gatewood- SS- Mil
I thought about having Tommy take a pitcher here, but Tommy loves power and Gatewood has a ton of it. The fact that he’ll be playing in Milwaukee doesn’t hurt either. Gatewood may be the guy to eventually replace Tulo but even if Gatewood ends up moving to third the power will play. Another player who was at the PG showcase, he was one of the only guys I did not get to see personally which was a disappointment. BA did have him rated as the #3 high school prospect in January (ahead of everyone not named Jackson or Kolek) but he fell in the draft because of concerns with his hit tool. If he can hit enough to be adequate, the power will play up considerably in Milwaukee and in the NL Central overall.
11- Kelly’s Heroes (Pro Bowlers): Kodi Medeiros- LHP- Mil
Find shelter, because two Brewers will be taken in the first round of the CPL draft for the first time ever. Milwaukee had a fantastic first day of the draft and they took three guys who could be impact players in Gatewood, Medeiros, and Monte Harrison. If you listened to the CPLodcast you heard my thoughts on Medeiros and I honestly think there’s a chance that he comes out of this pitching-heavy draft as the top 1 or 2 pitchers taken. Again, because he played in Hawaii he didn’t get the national attention that some others have, but that did not stop him from dominating when he played in the national circuit after his junior year. I predicted last night that he could have the Mike Trout-type publicity explosion after getting some national, professional exposure (for those that don’t remember, Trout was a player from the North East who didn’t get the attention he deserved in HS because he wasn’t from Texas or Georgia). A tall, projectable lefty with great deception, good command of a mid 90s fastball that has great life, and an absolutely devastating, video game slider, Medeiros is an exciting player. Don’t believe me? Watch this clip where Medeiros faced Nick Gordon (strikeout), Greg Deichmann (strikeout) and Michael Gettys (groundout) and listen to Eric Byrnes rave about how this breaking ball “should be illegal” (fast forward to 53:24). Another return for Joey Votto, JK will be very happy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6s2f93SMR8
12- Kelly’s Heroes (Fajita Eaters): Braxton Davidson- OF/1B- Atl
A year ago yesterday (6/5/13) JK traded away Prince Fielder and Barry Zito and in return he’ll end up getting Yordano Ventura, Matt Moore and Braxton Davidson. Again, not a bad move for JK. Davidson had the best power of any player that I saw that the PG Showcase last year, and it was not even close. As I said on the CPLodcast, Davidson stole the show, especially in the HR derby, when the ball was absolutely flying off of his bat. He fits the mold of the player who makes the ball sound different off the bat. In the HR derby he finished with 11 HR and, even though the next closest was a guy who had 7, Braxton actually came in 2nd to Chase Vallot because only the HR he hit in the final round (2) counted. The power was evident in the games I saw him in, too, not just in BP. I thought his swing speed was a little slower than it could be (due to an extremely wide base) but that can be easily fixed (maybe it already has been, I haven’t seen him since last year). Nevertheless, he is an exciting, high-ceiling guy to pay attention to and JK will be very pleased if he gets him at 12.
13- Kelly’s Heroes (Motley Shue): Monte Harrison- OF- Mil
You have to be kidding me, THREE BREWERS?! Yes, believe it. As I said, Milwaukee had a terrific first night of drafting and Harrison was the last of their 3 picks. He is a risky player because premium athlete outfielders have a history of fizzling out (see: Donovan Tate), but Harrison might be one to pan out. Yet another player I was able to see first-hand at the PG Showcase, Harrison displayed an excellent swing to go along with excellent speed and my first impression of him was that he looked like a young Torii Hunter. I think that’s probably his ceiling, too, which isn’t a bad thing. I do not think he’ll be an elite level offensive player, but I do think he has a chance to be very, very good hitting for good average with good power and good steals. Is he going to be Jay Bruce-like (the player JK traded to get this pick)? Well, probably not, but there’s a decent chance that he comes close to giving Kelly’s Heroes production that is close to the same (less power, more SB).
14- Kelly’s Heroes (Danimals): Gilbert Lara- OF- Mil(?)
ANOTHER BREWER?!?!?! IS THE WORLD COMING TO AN END? RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!!
A bit of a surprise pick here, but just as before JK can afford to take some gambles on players. Sounds like Lara will be the top J2 signing and reports have him going to Milwaukee for around $3 million. Not wanting to miss out on the next big 16-year old IFA, JK Takes Lara here and will hope his gamble pays off (translation: hopes Lara’s value goes up so he can move him for more draft picks). This probably isn’t what JK had in mind when he traded David Wright, Matt Holliday, Ervin Santana, Mookie Betts, and Julio Urias (and a 6th) to Danimals back in September of 2013, but then who expected Danimals to be a playoff team. To be fair JK also got Justin Morneau, Jameson Taillon and Danny Espinosa in that deal but, overall, that one’s not looking so great for JK. But it’s worth repeating, there’s a chance that there are 4 Brewers taken in the first round of the CPL draft. For the record (I went back and looked), but not only has there never been multiple Brewers taken in the 1st round of our draft, there has never been a SINGLE Brewer taken in the 1st round of a CPL Free Agent draft (although Matt Laporta was taken in the 2nd round in ’08, which would be the equivalent of a 1st round pick in today’s CPL, and CC Sabathia was taken in the 1st round of the expansion draft, but that doesn’t really count).
15- Kelly’s Heroes (Rollin’ Goats): Kyle Freeland- SP- Col
It was all the way back in March of ’13 when Rollin' Goats traded this pick for Brandon Maurer, Manuel Margot, a 3rd round pick. I’d say that the odds are pretty stacked in JK’s favor that, regardless of who he takes here, that will turn out to be a good move for him. And I have JK taking Freeland. Yep, Colorado pitchers are hard to project in the 1st round, but Freeland has a knack of keeping the ball in the park (0 HR allowed this year), and has good BB and K numbers. I think he’ll be a guy to sneak into 1st round CPL consideration after he signs this year and, after a long offseason, JK takes him with his last pick in the round as a safe player who’ll be quick to the bigs and who presents with a good (albeit not great) ceiling. But JK will have taken so many gamble/high-upside picks that finishing with one safer one makes sense. And it’s not like Freeland is a slouch, he did go #8 overall.
16- Your Mom: Michael Gettys- OF- SD
I hate taking Padre position players and I know that Gettys has not lived up to the hype thus far, and maybe he never does, but he was one of the most exciting players from the Showcase last June and I think that he has perhaps the highest offensive potential of anyone in this draft. He has elite bat speed, speed, defensive abilities, and may be the only real 5-tool threat available. Hopefully after he gets some professional coaching and matures a little more he can find a way to barrel the ball more than he has been. At the showcase I talked with a scout and I was pleased to find out that I was not the only one super high on Gettys; the scout told me that he was one of the best players he saw there. In terms of ability + production, Gettys may be the next Mike Trout, or he may be the next Bubba Starling. But I might just be willing to gamble and find out who he becomes.
Well there you have it. My first crack at the 2015 CPL draft. We'll see just how inaccurate I am in right around 9 months.
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